Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 13.635019 15.605248 17.729733 20.187064 22.947170 25.947630 29.452275
2025-03-02 10.852099 13.544337 16.673485 20.563657 25.253550 30.707552 37.511710
2025-03-09 9.266896 12.233773 15.852502 20.562185 26.497511 33.694047 43.041340
2025-03-16 7.970271 11.070418 15.019348 20.372940 27.389117 36.212569 48.080982
2025-03-23 7.120234 10.334172 14.583780 20.549319 28.630951 39.110901 53.624929
2025-03-30 6.595481 9.957482 14.553506 21.207730 30.489129 42.851997 60.413549
2025-04-06 5.890310 9.240147 13.969582 21.023276 31.139697 44.962129 65.072790
2025-04-13 5.044820 8.224813 12.861797 19.984978 30.486302 45.198129 67.109983
2025-04-20 4.719394 7.952478 12.798512 20.431641 31.948996 48.426201 73.451707
2025-04-27 4.417263 7.682582 12.707307 20.812394 33.312957 51.552892 79.767162
2025-05-04 4.035342 7.245646 12.317818 20.696097 33.902593 53.552047 84.499475
2025-05-11 3.658814 6.779907 11.840987 20.397810 34.175297 55.066023 88.546935
2025-05-18 3.383975 6.467763 11.597175 20.468307 35.048875 57.564725 94.259783
2025-05-25 3.165723 6.233863 11.463429 20.705784 36.196785 60.535912 100.834631
2025-06-01 2.937194 5.957571 11.231515 20.752990 37.020679 63.014936 106.720669
2025-06-08 2.690083 5.622419 10.868923 20.545773 37.398960 64.785170 111.539348
2025-06-15 2.526797 5.429276 10.740009 20.729100 38.432725 67.643175 118.205245
2025-06-22 2.445251 5.386796 10.878497 21.390736 40.314121 71.963430 127.421772
2025-06-29 2.255524 5.110504 10.562510 21.205506 40.699787 73.798570 132.588224
2025-07-06 1.976205 4.623110 9.808965 20.158868 39.489525 72.868062 133.057576
2025-07-13 1.899328 4.552607 9.852856 20.609102 40.995142 76.642828 141.653711
2025-07-20 1.819857 4.468843 9.863340 20.992805 42.392528 80.278829 150.139858
2025-07-27 1.693189 4.268977 9.625413 20.875609 42.847019 82.267437 155.825162